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August 21st, 2010 10:54 PM

When will Facebook go public? How will it monetize its users? We don't know yet, but here's one educated guess about how much the social networking giant will be worth.

Mark Zuckerberg Facebook

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg

by Andy M. Zaky, contributor

Like many privately held companies, Facebook is very tight-lipped about its financial performance. It told us it became cash flow positive for the first time in September 2009, and earlier this summer it announced it had eclipsed 500 million subscribers. It continues to push into new businesses – earlier this week it announced new location-based features – but when pressed to share the plans for monetizing these businesses, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg typically declines to elaborate.

But all this mystery doesn't stop rampant speculation about Facebook's valuation. Nor does it stop big investors from taking sizable stakes in the company in the hopes of getting handsome returns on an IPO that some insiders suspect will happen in 2012.

Based on a recent study released by eMarketer, Facebook is expected to bring in roughly $1.3 billion in revenue in 2010, nearly double the $665 million the research firm estimates Facebook recorded in 2009. Yet despite its enormous revenue growth, Facebook currently only brings in a meager $0.56 per 1,000 page impressions compared to the industry average of $2.43, according to Comscore. Furthermore, according to current estimates provided by Second Shares, Facebook makes only about $2.60 per user on an annual basis, which is significantly lower than the $18 made by Google (GOOG) or the $12 made by AOL (AOL).

And while Facebook is poised to surpass Google in terms of visits – in July, according to Compete.com, Google had 3.161 billion visits and Facebook had 3.152 billion -- it's worth questioning the company's ability to fully monetize its user-base. But it's also important to remember that other Internet-based companies started in a similar way -- including Google -- and that Facebook could easily improve upon its anemic revenue per-user growth.

Facebook insists there's no imminent public offering. But that won't stop us from asking: What is Facebook really worth, and what kind of IPO valuation might we expect?

Shares of Facebook already trade on two private exchanges, where a small market exists for investing in venture-backed companies. The trades aren't made public, and the lack of liquidity makes it difficult to determine a true market value. According to Next Up Research, investors were valuing Facebook at between $11.1 billion and $12.5 billion earlier this year, based on an analysis of shares purchased on the SharesPost private exchange. Today, they're valued at $24.9 billion, according to Bloomberg.

And, according to Larry Albukerk, a specialist at EB Exchange Funds who privately brokers shares of Facebook, the company occasionally trades at an even higher valuation. "There are very larger, sophisticated institutional investors who are buying at a $30 billion valuation," he recently told MSN Money.

The volatility of the private market

Those are big swings, but Facebook investors are all too familiar with such volatility. When Microsoft (MSFT) took a $240 million stake in the company in October 2007, it was valued at $15 billion – the same valuation it had in early 2008 when Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-Shing made the second of two $60 million stakes. But by 2009, Facebook's value had dropped. A $200 million stake made by the Russian technology firm Digital Sky Technologies in May 2009 put the company at a valuation of roughly $10 billion.

So are private investors getting overzealous in their assessment of the company or will these large stakes prove as lucrative as they were for Google's earliest investors? With 500 million subscribers, Facebook already owns a quarter of the world's Internet users. Yet, as the financial community learned with YouTube, having a gaggle of users is only one part of the equation.

Facebook will probably be able to monetize its user-base more efficiently in coming years as its business strategy shifts, says eMarketer analyst Debra Aho Williamson. Although half of Facebook's current growth comes from the blockbuster success of its self-serve ad platform, its future lies with big-brand advertisers who want to reach customers through Facebook and are willing to pay higher CPM rates (cost per thousand page impressions) than the current platform delivers. Procter & Gamble (PG), the world's largest advertiser, continues to take a significant interest in Facebook, and other big brand names will likely follow.

Secondly Facebook will soon see a significant uptick in user-growth through international markets, which is key in making the overall platform very attractive to brand advertising.

Finally, despite the company's massive customer base, it's still far outpacing Google's growth in users. According to recent estimates, Facebook grew its user-base by 150% in 2009 versus Google's 40% growth based on similar metrics.

Even if Facebook doesn't substantially raise its revenue per user in the immediate future, that staggering user growth by itself justifies a valuation of nearly $50 billion over the next several years. Facebook is expected to earn nearly $1.8 billion in revenue in 2011 and that's based on a projected 600 to 700 million users. Google currently trades at a $150 billion market capitalization and the only thing standing between Google and Facebook is Google's revenue per user. If Facebook figures out a way to command similar revenue per user rates as Google, the company could potentially be worth upwards of $150 billion.

It almost doesn't matter exactly when Facebook's business model meets its full potential – it is certain to have a welcome reception whenever it decides to go public. What investors will likely see on Facebook's IPO is a rally not seen since Google's IPO. Many investors missed out in getting ahead of Google's meteoric stock surge, and Facebook will give investors a second opportunity to participate in a blockbuster IPO.


Posted by Greg Melton on August 21st, 2010 10:54 PMPost a Comment (0)

August 21st, 2010 10:52 PM
It appears even the bright spots of this tired economy are still working against heavily indebted homeowners. Mortgage rates have hit new lows nearly every week, but many borrowers are still unable to take advantage of them.

Like it is in so many parts of today's sideways economy, relief is out of reach. Stimulus dollars are everywhere, but somehow never where they're needed most.

The fall in rates ostensibly means homeowners can lower their monthly loan payments by refinancing their existing loans. They're certainly trying -- the Mortgage Bankers Association reported last week that 78.1% of all mortgage applications fell under the refinance category, up from 58.7% in April.

But many of them are filling out all that paperwork only to get a rejection letter in response. The mortgage association does not quantify how many of those who apply for refinance actually get approved, but mortgage brokers say many homeowners are ineligible. Last year the Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, was created to help homeowners get new loans, but the program has only resulted in a small fraction of the refinancings the government aimed to enable.

"The qualifications are so much stricter," says Dale Robyn Siegel, CEO of Harrison, NY-based Circle Mortgage Group and author of The New Rules for Mortgages. "Banks have realized that even the best of borrowers have lost their jobs. A lot of people are really tapped out."

Doors closing

The stricter qualifications include a higher FICO score of at least 620, a higher down payment and lower monthly debt service ratios. Additionally, lenders typically won't loan more than the appraised value of a home. The troubled housing market has left an estimated 15 million U.S. mortgages -- one in five -- worth more than the value of the homes they helped purchase. The growing mountains of paperwork required and higher bank fees have also discouraged some from refinancing.

Add it all up, and you get a 4.44% rate that most Americans can't have.

The government-controlled Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) and Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) either own or guarantee half of the nation's mortgages. Wall Street economists and analysts have called on the Feds to loosen lending standards and give breaks on fees so that more people qualify to refinance. In the short-term, this could free up household incomes and inject much-needed money into a slow-growing economy. But opponents argue it would only add to the hundreds of billions of dollars it will take to prop up troubled Fannie and Freddie.

The U.S. Treasury Department says it doesn't plan to ease refinancing rules.

It's easy argue against the idea of helping homeowners -- even the debt-ridden and jobless -- with their bills. After all, it can be said they bought too much house for their own good and bailing them out would only encourage the kind of irresponsible borrowing that sent the US economy into a financial crisis in the first place.

But lower interest rates, ideally, are meant to encourage investments - something the economy could use right about now. Instead, today's mortgage rates are doing nothing more than tempting those investors who can't have them.


Posted by Greg Melton on August 21st, 2010 10:52 PMPost a Comment (0)

August 21st, 2010 10:50 PM
The credit market may finally be starting to thaw out, according to a report from the Federal Reserve.

The Fed said Monday that banks relaxed their lending standards over the last quarter, with the most improvement at big banks.

The Fed's quarterly survey of senior bank loan officers assesses supply and demand for bank loans to businesses and consumers. The past few reports showed that banks had been easing lending standards for large corporations.

But the July survey showed the first sign that credit was loosening for small businesses, a sector especially hard-hit during the recession.

Over the last quarter, small companies -- those with sales of less than $50 million a year -- found loan standards relaxing for the first time since 2006.

Throughout the downturn small businesses have complained of a constant struggle to obtain loans, while big companies rack up cash on their balance sheets.

Last month, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said $40 billion worth of loans to small businesses have evaporated in the past two years. He said correcting the problem should be "front and center among our current policy challenges."

In his speech, Bernanke said banks "should do all they can to meet the needs of creditworthy borrowers. Doing so is good for the borrower, good for the lender, and good for our economy."

Consumer loans: Lending generally eased for consumers, but credit card loans were the exception, the Fed report said.

Changes in standards for credit card loans varied widely. Big banks -- and a few other card issuers -- generally eased up, while others said they tightened conditions.

In addition, a small fraction of banks said they had reduced the size of credit lines for existing customers. Still, the report said, "that fraction has decreased noticeably over the past few surveys." 


Posted by Greg Melton on August 21st, 2010 10:50 PMPost a Comment (0)

August 21st, 2010 10:49 PM

The Obama administration will take its first stab at this vexing question Tuesday. Treasury's Conference on the Future of Housing Finance will bring together bankers, investors, housing experts and policymakers in search of a fix for the government-sponsored mortgage investors, which have consumed nearly $150 billion of taxpayer support since their September 2008 takeover.

Financing fix needed

Fannie and Freddie don't make loans, but they guarantee mortgage loans made by others and purchase some loans for their own portfolios. They extend credit to homebuyers by making financing available to lenders, and keep mortgage markets liquid by making mortgage purchases.

By extending credit with an implicit government guarantee, the companies create huge risks to taxpayers, as we have seen. But to make changes now, at a time when the economy appears on the verge of another damaging downturn, is to risk pulling the rug out from under an already unsteady recovery.

So what to do?

Fannie (FNMA) and Freddie (FMCC) "are quite profoundly broken," says Raj Date of the Cambridge Winter Center. "But no one wants to disrupt the only thing that's working right now in the mortgage market."

And as usual, there is little agreement over what shape a cure should take. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has said he believes there is a "strong economic and public policy case" for retaining a government guarantee of mortgage lending under the right circumstances. Pimco's Bill Gross says he wouldn't buy the companies' debt without one.

But the Republicans in the House insist the companies simply should be privatized, however unrealistic that is. And whatever the destination, no one seems to know how to get from here to there.

In the meantime, the companies loom large in the debt markets, just as they did in 2008 when the government took them over. Fannie and Freddie have guaranteed $5 trillion or so of mortgages. The companies' bonds now reside in banks and insurance companies all over the country, as well as at the Federal Reserve and overseas.

Foreigners held $1.28 trillion of agency debt at the end of the first quarter, Fed data show. That's down from $1.58 trillion at the peak of the debt bubble in 2007, but still gives U.S. trading partners a substantial stake in the outcome of this debate.

With any luck, Tuesday's discussions will shed some light on the steps the government might take next, and offer some signs that politicians on both sides of the aisle are taking the issue more seriously. If not, the housing mess will only get more unruly.

"If the debate about mortgage finance's future cannot be raised above the level of a partisan turkey shoot, the prospects for any meaningful change are likely to be dim," former Fannie Mae executive Barry Zigas wrote on his blog.


Posted by Greg Melton on August 21st, 2010 10:49 PMPost a Comment (0)

China is bracing for another tough year despite economic growth, but opposes foreign pressure to appreciate the value of its currency, Premier Wen Jiabao said Sunday.

"This is going to be the most complicated year for the economy," Wen said. "We still face a lot of uncertainties."

Wen, who spoke at a news conference after a parliament meeting, said China will keep its currency, the yuan, "basically stable," signaling that it's not heeding calls to boost the value of its currency.

Last week, U.S. President Barack Obama asked China to allow the yuan to appreciate, amplifying complaints that Beijing artificially keeps the yuan undervalued to boost exports.

But Wen decried the calls.

"We oppose the practice of finger-pointing among countries or strong-arm measures to force other countries to appreciate currencies," Wen said.

He said China's "strong efforts" to keep the yuan stable have played an important role in the global economic recovery.

Wen warned that the United States disrupted its relations with China when the Obama administration decided to sell weapons to Taiwan and welcome the Dalai Lama to the White House.

Washington in January announced the sale of $6.4 billion of weapons to Taiwan, which China regards as a renegade province.

Weeks later, Obama met the Tibetan spiritual leader, prompting protests from Beijing and souring relations.

"These moves violated China's sovereignty," Wen said. "The responsibility lies on the U.S. side, not on China's side."

The premier also addressed stability and security of the U.S. Treasurys that China holds.

"In the press conference last year, I said I was a bit concerned about it," he said. "This year, I make the same remark. I am still concerned. I hope the U.S. will take concrete measures to assure its investors."

China responded quickly after the 2008 economic downturn by launching a 4 trillion yuan, or $586 billion, stimulus package to boost domestic demand and make up for the shrinking exports.

In recent months, Beijing has seen an economic rebound and GDP growth beat expectations last year by topping 8 percent. Wen said the focus will be on consolidating gains while trying to avoid "double dip" and overheating.

China's inflation rate hovers around 3 percent, Wen said, and China is alert over fears of economic overheating and asset bubbles.

Wen added that Beijing policies are open to businesses.

"We welcome foreign businesses to come to China to open businesses according to the law," he said. "We will vigorously bring in foreign capital and give high priority to advanced foreign technology and managerial expertise."

The premier said he supports free trade because it promotes global economy and harmony.

However, "trade protectionism has gotten worse," he said, and urged the United States and the European Union to lift restrictions on exports of certain technology to China


Posted by Greg Melton on March 14th, 2010 10:48 AMPost a Comment (0)

March 14th, 2010 10:46 AM
More than 170,000 troubled homeowners are breathing a lasting sigh of relief now that they've received permanent modifications under the Obama administration's foreclosure prevention program.

Some 15.5% of those who entered the program have gotten long-term adjustments through February, up from 11.5% a month earlier, according to a report from Treasury officials issued Friday.


An additional 91,800 permanent modifications have been approved by servicers and are pending borrower acceptance. And more than 88,600 people have been denied lasting help because they did not meet the program's criteria, while another 1,499 homeowners have had their permanent modification terminated.

More than 835,000 people are currently in trial modifications, a review period during which banks check whether borrowers can make the reduced payments and gather the necessary paperwork to verify income and hardship. The administration's foreclosure prevention program reduces eligible borrowers' monthly payments to 31% of pre-tax income. Participants typically have their loans reduced by $519, or 36%.

The number of people receiving permanent help has been steadily rising as the administration increases the pressure on mortgage servicers to make decisions on those in the trial phase.

However, some experts say that more needs to be done to help troubled borrowers, particularly those without jobs or who owe more than their homes are worth.

Even those who make it into a trial modification are not assured of getting permanent assistance. A growing number of people are getting rejection notices as they hit the end of their trial period.

"While the pace of conversion to a permanent modification has stepped up since the program started, it is slow compared to the large number of loans that are still in trial modification," according to Celia Chen, who studies the housing market. "A large number of these homes are expected eventually to be put up for sale, adding to the supply glut and causing prices to decline once again.

When the modification was first announced in February 2009, the administration said it would help up to 4 million people avoid foreclosure. More recently, however, it has changed that goal, now saying that up to 4 million people could qualify for trial modifications.

The shift doesn't sit well with some housing advocates.

"Our measurement of success cannot be based on how many people gain assistance for only a few months, but it must be based on how many people gain permanent and sustainable modifications," said New York State Banking Superintendent Richard Neiman, who serves on the State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group.

Additional efforts

The administration is rolling out new programs to try to keep the housing market on a fairly even keel. Last month, President Obama announced a $1.5 billion initiative to help the unemployed and underwater who owe more than their home's value in five hard-hit states.

And officials will soon implement a foreclosure alternative designed for people who don't qualify for modifications. The administration will pay borrowers, servicers and investors incentives to complete short-sales, in which the bank agrees to sell the home for less than the mortgage amount.

Friday's figures comes a day after an industry report showed the national foreclosure rate fell 2% in February from a month earlier. Yet, RealtyTrac warned that the true number of distressed borrowers may be hidden by the foreclosure prevention efforts.

Many experts are expecting a surge in foreclosures during 2010 as borrowers' attempts to modify their loans fail


Posted by Greg Melton on March 14th, 2010 10:46 AMPost a Comment (0)

If you've been holding off on a real estate purchase, glimmers of a turnaround in the housing market may have you wondering if it's finally time to make your move.

While home prices remain low, they're no longer free-falling in most markets. Mortgages are historically cheap. And the sweet tax credit that was offered to new buyers last year has been extended to April 30 and expanded to include current homeowners too.

But for all the motivation to act quickly, buying right now is not a no-brainer. In some areas home prices may fall further. If you own a house now, it may take longer than you expect to sell it, and you may walk away with less cash than you thought.

"It's a good time to buy, but it's still a really difficult market," says Patrick Newport of IHS Global Insight. As the clock ticks toward the tax-credit deadline, answer these questions to decide whether it's time to get off the sidelines.

Can you really nab that tax credit?

Current homeowners who sign a contract to buy a home on or before April 30 get a dollar-for-dollar reduction on their taxes of 10% of the purchase price of the home, up to a maximum of $6,500 (first-time buyers can get up to $8,000).

But according to the National Association of Realtors, buyers spend about 12 weeks home shopping before making an offer, so if you haven't already started looking, you may be pressed to meet the deadline.

Plus, to qualify for the full credit, your household income must be under $225,000 if you're married and less than $125,000 if you're single; repeat buyers must have lived in the home they are selling for five of the past eight years. The good news: Once you've signed the contract, you have until June 30 to close the deal.

How much could you lose by waiting?

Besides the loss of the tax credit, the biggest game-changer facing buyers is a potential jump in mortgage rates. If the Fed moves ahead with its plan to stop buying mortgage-backed securities at the end of March, the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is expected to increase nearly a percentage point from today's 5.18% to 6.1% by the end of 2010, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. On a $300,000 fixed-rate mortgage, that's an extra $174 per month.

But if home values are falling in your area, you don't have much to lose by waiting. If the house you want costs $375,000 today and you put down 20%, you'd pay $1,644 a month for a fixed-rate mortgage at 5.18%. Buy that same home for 5% less later on with rates at 6% and you'd only pay an extra $65 a month. If prices plunge 10% or more this year (as they are expected to in 12% of markets, according to Fiserv), you'll come out even or ahead.

To get a handle on the direction of your market, check trulia.com to see whether inventory levels are increasing, and visit realtytrac.com to find out whether foreclosure filings are still rising. A glut of properties and bank-owned homes means a recovery may not be in sight.

How quickly can you sell the home you now own?

Even in markets that are recovering, sellers must price aggressively to make a fast deal.

"Everybody thinks their house is worth more than it is," says Dallas realtor Bruce Lynn. Before you sign a contract for a new place, ask a few agents to give you a realistic figure that will generate a quick sale. Can't bear to part with your home at that price? Waiting may be your only option.

Also keep in mind that, with the credit crunch not far in the past, lenders may not approve your purchase until you've sold your home. A delay in sale could also stick you with two mortgages, far outstripping any savings from the tax credit.

See if the sellers will let you put a contingency in the contract that negates the sale if you don't find a buyer -- it's a long shot but worth a try. If they won't, propose adding a kick-out clause that allows the sellers to keep their home on the market, but lets you either pull out or quickly move ahead with the deal if they get another offer.

While extra contract negotiations may be a hassle, the past few years have proved that a purchase decision shouldn't be taken lightly. "This may be the best time in history to buy a home," says Denver realtor Jeff Fogler, "but only if you can really afford it."


Posted by Greg Melton on March 7th, 2010 8:55 PMPost a Comment (0)

The recent spike in the number of delinquent Federal Housing Administration-insured loans has some people worried that taxpayers will eventually have to bail the agency out.

Seriously delinquent FHA loans, those 90 days or more late, jumped 62.1% in the past year to 558,944, or 9.4% of FHA loans, as of the end of January, according to agency statistics released on Friday.

The FHA, however, insists its finances are sound. Its loan portfolio actually performed better than most mortgage products, according to David Stevens, the agency's commissioner.

"The FHA default rates are increasing at a slower rate than even prime mortgages," he said.

But the reason for this increase may be more of a statistical glitch than an actual trend. Loans that go into the seriously delinquent bucket stay there far longer, boosting the numbers and making comparisons problematic, said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Many lenders and servicers are overwhelmed by sheer volume of loans and are reluctant to take back homes they don't think they can sell. As result, they keep the loans hanging out in the 90-day late bin rather than moving them into foreclosure.

Lenders are also trying to modify more mortgages, which can take months to accomplish. Meantime, many of the borrowers sit in the seriously delinquent bucket.

In contrast, loans that are 30- or 60-days late actually declined in the past year, according to the FHA.

Home price drops hurt

Until the mortgage bubble burst, FHA loans made up a small portion of the housing market. Now, the agency originates almost a third of all home loans. That means most of the agency's notes were issued in the past three years -- when prices were plummeting.

"There are a lot of young loans in the FHA book," said Mike Fratantoni, vice president of Single-Family Research and Policy Development at the MBA. "Mortgages typically hit their peak delinquency rates two or three years after origination."

Those early years are toughest because many borrowers have struggled to afford their homes and their incomes have not risen enough to offset any setbacks.

Additionally, the price drops pushed many FHA borrowers underwater. These homeowners only had to put 3.5% down to start, so they could quickly end up owing more than their homes were worth in places where values plummeted 20%, 30%, 40%.

Once these mortgages clear the system, the FHA portfolio should emerge in sound condition. Recent FHA borrowers have been of high quality; their average credit score has risen 33 points in the 12 months through December to 694 and is up from the low 600s a few years ago.

No policy change

Some FHA mortgages are simply bad loans. After subprime lending froze in 2007, overly aggressive mortgage originators, who could no longer hook up borrowers with subprime loans, turned to FHA loans for their risky clients.

Commission loan officers and rogue mortgage brokers pushed the envelope of who qualified for FHA loans, according to Allen Hardester, a Columbia Md.-based mortgage consultant. They pushed the edge on debt-to-income ratios, credit scores and loan-to-value ratios.

"They took advantage of lax underwriting by FHA to interpret the guidelines broadly," he said.

The resultant delinquencies have not persuaded FHA to impose risk-based pricing, in which borrowers pay more if they have lower credit scores. But the FHA does now require that borrowers with FICO scores of less than 580 put down at least 10% of the sale price, rather than the 3.5% minimum requirement for more qualified borrowers.

And the agency has also eliminated seller-assisted down payment programs, which HUD has said accounts for a disproportionately large share of FHA delinquencies.

In these transactions, sellers kick back the down payment to homebuyers, usually through a third party. The result is that buyers have no "skin-in-the-game," which makes the loans more attractive to risky borrowers.

Commissioner Stevens said the FHA is on a sound financial basis. Its primary reserve fund is at $32 billion, its highest level ever. There's a secondary reserve that has fallen below its mandated level, but the FHA has taken steps to boost it. It recently asked Congress to increase the monthly fees it charges borrowers to insure their loans.


Posted by Greg Melton on March 7th, 2010 8:54 PMPost a Comment (0)

Just a few years ago you could count on getting the bulk of your money back for almost any home-improvement project you took on. Today merely replacing a toilet seat can feel like throwing caution, and cash, to the wind. According to a study from Remodeling magazine, the average return on value for an upgrade declined from 87% in 2005 to 64% in 2009. But these six new rules will help you maximize your return on your remodeling investment.

Rule No. 1: Repairs get the biggest returns


The smartest money now goes into "undeferring" needed maintenance. That's because while buyers might appreciate enhancements like Jacuzzis and Sub-Zeros, they won't tolerate a house with a leaky roof or antiquated plumbing. "If a property is known to have issues, today's buyers won't even look at it," says Austin real estate appraiser Jim Amorin.

And trying to keep problems a secret can cost you big-time. If buyers discover them during inspection, it's now common practice to ask sellers not only to pick up the tab for the repair but also to pay a penalty to compensate the buyer for the inconvenience of having work done.

So the $20,000 you saved by putting off a roof repair, say, could turn into a $30,000 credit to the buyers at closing, says Amorin.

Rule No. 2: Remodeling beats adding on

McMansions have gone the way of the SUV -- and large additions don't pay off either. "There's been a fundamental shift toward quality over quantity," says Warwick, R.I., real estate agent Ron Phipps.

Having a big, formal living room plus an everyday family room is less desirable than having one multi-use common space. So rather than adding on, you're better off repurposing existing square footage by reconfiguring the floor plan or capturing unused basement or attic space.

Want an eat-in kitchen? Knock down the wall between the kitchen and dining room ($2,000 to $8,000, depending on whether it's load-bearing or contains plumbing). That will instantly create a large eat-in kitchen and give the whole house a more open feel -- without a huge investment to make up at resale.

Rule No. 3: Eco-friendly upgrades can save cash

Some green improvements pay you back long before you sell your house. Install energy-efficient features, such as EnergyStar appliances and extra wall insulation, and you'll see lower energy bills every month.

Add in the federal tax credit of up to $1,500 that lasts through 2010, plus many local rebates and tax incentives (see dsireusa.org), and the work may pay for itself in just five years. Green features are also increasingly a selling point, says Phipps. "Most people in the market right now are first-time homebuyers in their thirties, and they've been raised to care about carbon footprints and being ecofriendly," he says.

The best way to go green is with a while-you're-at-it job: When it's time to replace your furnace, for example, upgrading to super-efficiency might add only $500 (after tax credits), compared with standard new equipment, but it will save you -- and your buyers someday -- $150 or more in annual heating costs.

Rule No. 4: Tech infrastructure trumps cool gadgets

Home electronics seem like a deal, since prices have fallen about 50% over the past three years and continue to drop, according to Stephen Baker, president of industry analysis at NPD Group, a market research firm.

Still, that doesn't change the fundamental problem with expensive built-in technology: Put in a $10,000-plus dedicated home theater today, and something better will come along tomorrow and make your system look as if it's from the Mesozoic Era. With buyers seeking any excuse to low-ball their offers, they're not going to reward you for an out-of-date system.

Tech infrastructure is different, however. Anytime you're opening up walls for a construction project, have cabling and Ethernet ports installed. At about $80 a room, it's a low-cost way to provide the capability for whatever technologies come along.

Rule No. 5: Let the Joneses be your guide

During the boom, you could be the first on your block to have a luxury kitchen, spa bathroom, or in-ground pool and count on others following suit. And even if the neighbors never took your lead, there was plenty of equity growth to cover your costs.

Nowadays that fudge factor is gone. "You really have to keep your house's amenities in line with the neighborhood now," says Kermit Baker, director of the remodeling futures program at Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies.

If other houses on the block have real marble countertops, by all means add one to your house, but if everyone still has faux blue-marble Formica from the '70s, you're not getting your money back.

Also, keep your projects design-neutral so they'll appeal to the greatest number of people. Choose neutral colors and traditional electrical and plumbing fixtures unless your house has a modern architectural style.

Rule No. 6: The new payback time is five years

As with any volatile investment, the longer your time frame, the lower the risk. Don't take on a big project if you're likely to move in less than three to five years. There's just too much chance that any money you put in -- aside from necessary repairs or superficial cosmetic work -- could be lost while the housing market continues to meander.

But if you plan to stay awhile, don't delay starting a project. Home improvements are a bargain right now, with contractors bidding 10%, 20%, even 40% lower for the same work than just a year or two ago, says Bernie Markstein, senior economist for the National Association of Home Builders.

Grab them while they're hungry for work and make it clear that you'll be getting multiple bids so they'll be motivated to undercut one another's prices. You'll fulfill the first rule of investing: Buy low. Then hope that when you're ready to move, you can sell high.


Posted by Greg Melton on February 10th, 2010 8:42 AMPost a Comment (0)

As terrible as it is to lose your house to foreclosure, at least it's a relief to put your biggest financial headache behind you, right?

Wrong.

 
vanessa_corey.03.jpg
Vanessa Corey

Former homeowners may still be on the hook if there's a difference between what they owed on their mortgage and what the bank could sell it for at auction. And these "deficiency judgments" are ticking time bombs that can explode years after borrowers lose their homes.

It can even happen to people who got their bank to approve them selling their home for less than it is worth.

Vanessa Corey, for example, short sold her Fredericksburg, Va., home in April 2008. She and her husband built the house in 2004, but setbacks, both personal (divorce) and professional (housing bust), made it impossible for the real estate agent to keep her home. So she negotiated the short sale and thought that was the end of it.

"My understanding was that the deficiency was negotiated away," she said. "Then, last November, I got a letter from a lawyer telling me I owed my lender $65,000. I had to declare bankruptcy. There was no way I could pay it."

Many homeowners are now in the same boat. And not just those who took out bigger loans than they could afford or who did so called "liar loans" where they didn't have to verify their income.

Because of falling home prices, borrowers who always paid their mortgage but who have run into unforeseen circumstances -- like unemployment or a job transfer -- can no longer sell their homes for what they owe. As a result, they are being forced to short sell or foreclose and are getting caught up in deficiency judgments.

"After the banks foreclose, it's very common now to have large deficiencies with houses not worth the balances owed," said Don Lampe, a North Carolina real estate attorney.

Lenders mostly declined comment. Although Corey's lender, BB&T did indicate it was pursuing more deficiency judgments.

"They follow the rise and fall of foreclosures," said the spokeswoman, who would not discuss Corey's account.

Can they come after you?

Whether banks can and will pursue deficiency judgments depends on many factors, including what state the borrower lives in and whether there's a second mortgage or other liens. But if borrowers ignore the possibility of deficiencies, it could haunt them.

"Once they have a judgment, they can pursue you anywhere," said Richard Zaretsky, a board-certified real estate attorney in West Palm Beach, Fla. "They can ask for financial records, have your wages garnished and, if you fail to respond, a judge can put you in jail."

In the case of foreclosure, lenders can pursue deficiencies in more than 30 states, including Florida, New York and Texas, according to the U.S. Foreclosure Network, an organization of mortgage law firms.

Some states, such as California, are "non-recourse" and don't allow deficiency judgments. But, even there, if the original loan was refinanced, some or all of it may be subject to claims.

Deficiency judgments on short sales and deeds-in-lieu can happen in many more places. In these cases, extinguishing the debt is often a matter of negotiating with the bank.

But even when lenders are willing, many borrowers may not be aware that they have to ask for release. So, if you are pursuing a short sale, be sure your attorney asks the bank to release you from any further obligation.

"People shouldn't have a false sense of security that a deficiency judgment may not be later sought," Zaretsky said.

He expects many will be filed over the next few years, based on the fact that banks have sold many of these accounts to collection agencies and other third parties, at discount.

"The parties who bought those notes wouldn't have paid money for them unless they had the intention of acting," Zaretsky said.

Ticking time bomb

What can be scary is that the judgments don't have to be obtained immediately. Lenders or collection agencies may wait until debtors have recovered financially before they swoop in. In Florida, the bank can wait up to five years to file. Once the court grants a judgment, the lender has 20 years there to collect, with interest.

It doesn't have to be a large amount of debt for a lender or collection agency to come after borrowers. Richard Varno and his wife short sold their Nashville home back in 2004 after he lost his job.

It wasn't until 2008, when the second lien holder asked him for $25,000, that he realized he still was liable.

"I told them, 'Hey, you guys released the title,'" he said. "As far as I know, I'm off the hook."

He wasn't. Releasing title does not necessarily end the debt. It's complicated because of variations in state law, but, generally, a mortgage has two parts: a pledge of collateral, represented by the home, and a promise to pay off the loan.

Lenders may release property liens in order to facilitate short sales without releasing borrowers from their obligations to pay under the promissory notes. The secured debt can convert to an unsecured one after the sale.

Zaretsky had one client who was so relieved to have arranged a short sale that he signed every paper his real estate agent shoved at him, even a confession that clearly stated he still owed the debt.

"He had no idea what he was doing," said Zaretsky. "All the lender had to do was go to court to convert the confession into a deficiency judgment."

Lenders are also very inconsistent. One of Zaretsky's short-sale clients was ready, willing and able to pay, but the bank did not even ask; another lender always reserves the right to pursue the deficiency.

Strategic defaults

Sometimes lenders go after borrowers walking away from their homes if they have other assets, according to Florida real estate attorney Larry Tolchinsky.

"Banks are pulling credit reports to see if it's a strategic default," he said. "If you're behind on all your other payments, you're okay. But if you're not, they'll come after you."

If borrowers have any doubts about their risks, they should seek legal advice. Or, at least, call non-profit organizations such as NeighborWorks for advice. According to Doug Robinson, a NeighborWorks spokesman, its counselors always try to negotiate away deficiencies when they facilitate short sales or deeds-in-lieu.

"We don't favor any short-sale contracts that leave any deficiency that can be pursued," he said.

Robinson himself knows what can happen. He paid off a deficiency after his own New Jersey house went through foreclosure 11 years ago.


Posted by Greg Melton on February 10th, 2010 8:40 AMPost a Comment (0)

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